HARLAN, Iowa -- It is one of the most colorful rituals in American politics, a summertime fling with bands and barbecue, but the outcome is deadly serious for Republican presidential candidates.
Six months before the first official nominating contest, Iowa Republicans will gather in Ames on Saturday for a mock election that is likely to shape the GOP field for the coming year.
Candidates who end up near the top of the heap will live to fight another day. Losers may soon discover that they are out of money and luck.
"The grim reaper is going to be waiting outside the gates of the Ames auditorium," candidate Pat Buchanan said.
With so much at stake, most of the 10 GOP candidates are going all-out to win the straw poll. They're lining up buses to bring supporters to Ames and trying to entice them with promises of a day filled with barbecue and big-name entertainment.
The candidates with the most money, Texas Gov. George W. Bush and millionaire publisher Steve Forbes, are closely guarding information about their entertainment lineup. Rumors say that Bush's entourage may include singer George Strait and actors Arnold Schwarzenegger and Bruce Willis.
The straw poll is no ordinary election.
For starters, no one can vote without paying the $25 entrance fee, a charge candidates gladly pay for their allies. Although party officials say they intend to tighten security this year, voting irregularities have been common.
Four years ago, rivals Bob Dole and Phil Gramm packed the event with supporters bused in from neighboring states. Overzealous supporters voted repeatedly by washing off hand stamps that indicated they had cast a ballot...
It wasn't supposed to be this way. The first straw poll in 1987 was a gimmick to raise money for the Iowa Republican Party. The low-key affair gained importance as candidates and reporters began to see it as a crucial preview of the state's official nominating caucuses in February of presidential election years.
But the straw poll never has been good at picking the caucus winners. Religious broadcaster Pat Robertson won the straw poll in 1987, but came in second to Dole in the caucuses. Gramm tied Dole in 1995's straw poll, but had such a poor showing in the caucuses that he ended his campaign the next day.
Both contests require an extensive get-out-the-vote effort.
The straw poll has taken on new importance this year. With Bush dominating the Republican race, the mock election is a rare chance for his rivals to show that he may be vulnerable. It also gives cash-strapped, second-tier candidates a chance to emerge from the crowded GOP field.
Former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander and former Vice President Dan Quayle may have the most at stake because both are counting on a strong showing in Iowa to prove their viability as presidential candidates.
"My path to victory is doing well enough on Aug. 14 to be one of three or four Republicans who show the world that we are ready to be president and have an organization that can compete to win," Alexander said.
Some Alexander advisers said he needs to finish no worse than second to remain in the race.
Bush is shooting for a win because anything less would dent the aura of invincibility that surrounds him.
"If I intend to win the support of the people of Iowa, I need to show up at the Ames straw poll. I hope to win it," Bush said. "I'm going to give it my best shot."
Candidates have been flocking to the state as though it were the final week before the February caucuses.
At a series of recruiting sessions, Steve Grubbs, the former Iowa Republican Party chairman, enticed Forbes' supporters with a pitch that could have come straight out of a late-night television commercial.
"We're going to have a luxury, air conditioned bus going right through Harlan, Iowa, stopping right here, to pick you up," he told about three dozen voters at a coffee shop just off the town square.
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