Is there really a chance that Patrick J. Buchanan, born and bred a
Republican, could run as an independent presidential candidate in 2000 and
thereby elect Democrat Al Gore? Yes, the seed has been sown in the soil of
Buchanan's discontent with the GOP.
Such a deviation still is unlikely. Buchanan is pondering what he calls
his "conundrum": The better he does in Republican primaries, the stronger
would be an independent bid. But the longer he stays in the GOP chase, the
more problems accumulate to block a third-party candidacy.
Speculation the last two weeks has led Buchanan to contemplate what he
rejected in 1996 when, much to the dismay of his adherents, he supported
Republican nominee Bob Dole. But since then, his alienation from his party
and the prospective nominee, Texas Gov. George W. Bush, has deepened.
"I've been out here for four months now [campaigning for president], and
the disenchantment and disillusionment with the Republican Congress is
palpable," Buchanan told me. "I have not gone to a meeting where someone
has not got up and asked me to leave the Republican Party and go third
party. People get up--some of them in tears--who have been Republicans all
their lives, and they don't know what to do."
Many frustrated grass-roots conservatives so far have joined
self-satisfied establishment Republicans in supporting Bush. But not
Buchanan. In 1996, he declined the nomination of Howard Phillips' U.S.
Taxpayers Party because he regarded Dole as an experienced public servant
and longtime Republican loyalist who to the end backed Richard M. Nixon on
Watergate. Buchanan has ignored the GOP's 11th Commandment ("Thou shalt
not speak ill of another Republican") by suggesting that Bush is not fit
to be president.
"I do not think he's deep on the issues," Buchanan said on NBC's "Meet the
Press" Sunday. "What in heaven's name are his accomplishments and
achievements that would justify making him the president of the United
States?"
The final shove that could propel Buchanan into political apostasy would
be his growing perception that he is not getting a fair shot at the
nomination. He feels that Bush's campaign team is rearranging the ground
rules to benefit the governor. Louisiana's and Missouri's caucuses, both
won by Buchanan in 1996, have been transformed to formats more beneficial
to Bush. The primary in South Carolina has been shifted from March 4 to
Feb. 19, so a possible Buchanan win in New Hampshire could be more quickly
trumped.
Nevertheless, Buchanan did not seriously contemplate going independent
until the Washington Post reported June 20 that Buchanan had been advised
to consider seeking the nomination of Ross Perot's Reform Party. Since
then, the story has taken on a life of its own.
Buchanan sees three critical events taking place in the next two months.
First, a conservative-sponsored straw poll July 4 in Contoocook, N.H., in
which Buchanan, Gary Bauer and Sen. Bob Smith will be present for a right-
wing face-off. Second, the July 15 Federal Election Commission filing,
revealing which candidates are hurting for money. Third, the Ames, Iowa,
straw vote that, Buchanan predicts, will find the "grim reaper" at the
door.
Thus, Buchanan's conundrum. If the grim reaper grabs Buchanan, he may seem
too weak to run independently. If he is left standing, as Buchanan
predicts, it will be harder to leave the Republican race in time to get
organized and avoid "sore loser" laws (which in many states prevent a
primary election loser from later running as an independent).
Former Republican National Chairman Haley Barbour, a key Bush adviser,
predicts that Buchanan never will abandon his party. But Buchanan told me
he now feels closer to the Howard Phillips party and the Reform Party than
to the leadership of the GOP: "The establishment of the Republican Party
is reflecting less than ever before in my lifetime the sentiment of
grass-roots Republicans. This is going to manifest itself one day." That
outlook could prove ominous for George W. Bush in a close presidential
race.
