Is China preparing for a clash with the United States over Taiwan? What
other explanation is there for the ominous moves China is making on the
far side of the Taiwan Strait?
On Jan. 26, The Washington Times reported that Beijing had conducted mock
missile strikes on U.S. bases in Korea and Japan, using road-mobile CSS-5
missiles with a range of 1,300 miles and silo-based CSS-2 missiles with a
range of 1,900 miles.
On Feb. 10, London's Financial Times -- citing "military analysts in
Washington privy to a classified Pentagon report" -- wrote: "The Chinese
military has stationed 150 to 200 M-9 and M-11 missiles in its southern
regions aimed at Taiwan. It plans to increase the number to 650 missiles
over the next several years."
That 650 figure is staggering. When China launched M-9s toward Taiwan in
the 1995-96 confrontation that brought two U.S. carriers to the region, it
had only 30 to 50 opposite the island.
The M-9 has a 1,000-pound payload and 370-mile range, the M-11 a shorter
range but a larger payload. Both can hit Taiwan, both are nuclear-capable,
and Taiwan is defenseless against both. How threatening are they? A close
reading of "America's Maginot Line" in December's Atlantic Monthly might
prove instructive.
"With 45 missiles," writes Paul Bracken, "China could virtually close
Taiwan's ports, airfields, waterworks and power plants, and destroy the
oil-storage facilities of a nation that needs continual replenishment from
the outside world."
By firing fewer than 50 M-9s and M-11s, China could paralyze the island,
and again, China is building to 650 by 2005.
Bracken's thesis is that U.S. bases in Asia, because they are naked to
missile attack, are becoming as much hostages inhibiting U.S. action as
centers of American power. Missile strikes against these "soft targets,"
writes Bracken, could wreak havoc, destroying air fields, fuel dumps, and
weapons and ammunition depots. Under missile fire, the bases could be
rendered less than useless.
With neither Taiwan nor the United States possessing missile defenses,
how
would we protect the island from a Chinese missile barrage?
Retaliation by Taiwan with air strikes on China would bring an air-naval
war in the strait that Taiwan could not win against a nation 50 times its
size. Should the United States intervene with its 7th Fleet's air and
cruise missiles, this would be no rerun of the Gulf War. China has
submarines, warships, ballistic and cruise missiles that can reach U.S.
ships, and bombers with anti-ship weapons.
China is also developing laser weapons to blind U.S. satellites and radar
satellites to see through clouds to keep U.S. ships in their gun sights.
And by its mock missile attacks on U.S. bases, China is saying that any
attack on its forces will bring missile strikes on U.S. soldiers, sailors,
airmen and Marines in Asia.
As a world power, China is no match for America. But neither was Syria or
the Islamic terrorists when they ran us out of Lebanon. Within 300 miles
of its coast, Beijing can bring to bear a mighty and growing array of
missile power that could visit enormous damage on U.S. forces in the Far
East. We have but 100,000 men and women under arms out there; China has 20
times that number.
But what is Beijing's motive? Why would it, by threatening Taiwan, risk
disruption of trade ties that give China $60 billion in hard currency
every year? China's trade surplus with the United States in 1998 accounted
for almost its entire economic growth. A Beijing-provoked crisis would end
new investment and sever the trade ties that are responsible for China's
prosperity.
Clearly, China fears that a window of opportunity is closing. With North
Korea building rockets, China may worry that Japan, South Korea and Taiwan
may follow the example of India and Pakistan and develop independent
nuclear deterrents.
That would checkmate China's drive for hegemony in Asia.
China also views with alarm the belated U.S. effort to build a theater
missile defense for its allies, including Taiwan, which could make China's
missile force less threatening. One recalls that the Soviet Union was as
apprehensive about Ronald Reagan's SDI as the U.S. establishment was
mocking. China may feel she must act soon to settle the Taiwan issue, or
the island will be gone forever.
When China's Premier Zhu Rongji arrives in Washington this spring, the
president should tell him to stop targeting Taiwan and U.S. forces or
start looking elsewhere to sell his exports.
No one wants a war with China, but appeasement invites it.
